06 December 2009

hockey sticks?

Well, it sure looks like the meeting this week in Denmark is going to be very interesting.
The "hockey stick" graph for climate change is coming under pressure. The "leaked" emails from England have only added to the fuel against drastic, made made, climate change.
Things are so bad that Al, not my pal, Gore has backed out of even attending this meeting. He was supposed to give at least one speech on this topic. What with his now tow books, his Oscar winning movie, and of all things, a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts on the man made climate change, his no show leaves many folks wondering about the whole topic.
While this "disaster" of the emails gives fuel to the "deniers", it should make any sane, rational person stop and ask questions. One thing that really needs to be addressed, from my point of view, is why have the people who have been pushing the "hockey stick" data been so very slow, if at all, in sharing their data? As I understand things, the way science is supposed to work is you share all of your data with any other researcher who asks for it. In this way, they are able to use your data and see if they came get the same results that you have obtained. By not sharing this data, or being very slow to share it, they give the impression that they may have something they wish to keep secret. By not sharing the data, or in being very slow to do so, they make other researchers wonder why they are doing this. If you are an honest researcher, you should be willing to share all of your data with any other competent researchers. That is how new discoveries are validated. The with holding of data gives the impression of having something to hide.
And, it would seem that some of the "hockey stick" people did have things they wanted to hide. At least one researcher who finally got access to the original data has not been able to confirm their "hockey stick" conclusions. In fact, he has found that the "Medieval Warm Period" was even warmer that the temperatures we are experiencing today. This does not show in the hockey stick models. In fact, the "Medieval Warm Period" drops out completely in the "hockey stick" conclusions. Amazing.
Some of the "hockey stick" data only include tree rings from 10 (ten) tree ring samples. Also, those ten samples were not random samples. Not exactly a representative sampling in any way at all.
I do not claim that there is no climate change. The climate of planet earth has been changing for the last 4 billion years. Yep, ever since the planet formed. It will continue to keep on changing until the sun burns out.
The climate has undergone many periods of extreme climate change. We know there have been more than one ice age. We also know that it has been much warmer than it has been in our life times. During the age of the dinosaurs the climate was much warmer. Humans did not drive any of the previous climate changes.
I seriously doubt that the current climate change is driven by human activity also.
That being said, I see no reason why we should not do our best to conserve our natural resources. That just makes good sense to me. The less we use of them, the more there will be for future generations. Saving energy, by using high efficiency appliances, cars and truck that get better fuel milage are things we ought to do. It will save us money in the short term and it will help to insure that those resources may be available for the next generations.
What is very worrying to me is this "idea" of "cap and trade". This sounds like another scam for the very rich to get even richer and for the poor to get even poorer. As I said, just another scam. Actually, to me, "cap and trade" is not unlike those emails you get that inform you that you have "won" some lottery or other. Sure thing, by "random drawing" you have just "won" a huge sum of money. Now, you "only" need to send the "keeping fees" to "insure" the delivery of your prize. Just another SCAM, as is "cap and trade".
Bottom line, we all need to do our part to save our resources fro future generations. What we do not need to do is to tax the poor people of the world. We do not need government mandates to force conservation. While a few nice "carrots" could be useful in this, big "sticks" of higher taxes on the poor will not make things any better for any except government tax collectors and the speculators who will get rich off the idiot "cap and trade" schemes.
Just my 2 cents on climate change.
semper fi

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